Can we go by History?

The latest turmoil in the global financial arena has left many wondering what lies ahead and who will emerge a major player in the 21st century. The US reels under a tremendous amount of pressure on its financial institutions and the credit mainly goes to the irrational lending policies of the government. Such a major crisis was waiting to happen and we can already see the cookie crumbling.

If we look into history then we notice that this is a cycle of global dominance that keeps changing hands. During the 16th century Spain was easily the number one country in the world with its mammoth and so called invincible navy. It had conquered lands far and wide and was revelling in the gold of the Americas. But King Philippe had just a little too much in mind when he planned of conquering the British fleet with the Spanish Armada. The Armada was supposed to be much superior to the British navy but they were not wary of the clever tactics the British could apply in their own waters. The result was a total, crushing defeat which established Britain as the unrivalled master of the world. Until World War II Britain remained so almost without any competition. Under the rule of Queen Elizabeth I and Queen Victoria England consolidated its power and outmatched any competition it got. England became the supreme master of the sea routes which helped it surplus its trade with countries in the East and also establish colonies all over the Americas, Asia, Australia and Africa. This period was supposed to be ‘Pax Britannica’, a period when there was relative peace all over Europe and it was an unchallenged Sea Power. Occasionally the Turks and Napoleonite France tried to challenge this supremacy but without much success.

Towards the beginning of the 20th century countries all over Europe capitalising over the rapid industrial progress they made and establishment of colonies started to feel uneasy over this unrivalled supremacy. The result was the two World Wars. Though Germany, Italy and Japan consolidated their position after the war, Britain could never re-establish its former glory. A new nation took its place on the global map and it had a new rival too. The United States of America capitalised on the void created by the two Wars and reined in the power to rule the world through economic developments and large scale armament. The former Soviet Union tried its best to counter this Uni-Polar development of power and the result was the Cold War that was kind of a mad race for global dominance. Globalization through capitalism promoted by the US had almost every country under its umbrella in some way or the other. The communist USSR tried its best to maintain its power block but failed to do so due to its own limitations and internal power struggle. Though during this period many small regional wars were fought such as the Vietnam War, the Korean War, the Yugoslav Wars and the Gulf War with an active involvement of the US none of them scaled global proportions. This period has been referred to as ‘Pax Americana’. At the beginning of the early 1990’s the Soviet bloc crumbled under its own pressure and the US became the unrivalled master of the World.

During the past two decades or so the US has controlled the world more or less through its aggressive economic and foreign policies. It has realised that in the 21st century the country with the maximum hold upon the Energy Resources will be running the show. And through hook or by crook the US has tried to do just that. The two Gulf Wars and the Afghanistan War to some extent are testimony to this fact. But what the US didn’t realise that its own policies could backfire and hit them hard. Massive costs were incurred and on top of that many banks went on a lending spree predicting a further upsurge in the economy. But much before anyone could sound the warning bell lifeboats in the form of bailouts by the government had to be lowered. This too hasn’t provided much respite and it is as if the entire world is being dragged in to the whirlpool for being uninvited guests at the US’s party. Today the US faces a new enemy in the form of Islamist Hardliners who realise that they are being exploited in the name of Globalization and resources right in their backyard are being slowly pumped out. Terrorism is the new enemy of America and it is to be seen whether the War on Terror leads to their downfall. The Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have already left the US economy bruised and battered and though they are trying to gain their ground back it seems unlikely in the long run.

We have seen that throughout history it is after major Large Scale Wars that new powers have come to dominate the global scenario. Maybe this time too a similar development will take place. As the US falters upon its mistakes there is a new power rising in the East. China and India together represent the future of tomorrow and even though the global financial meltdown seems to have a vicelike grip throughout the world, these two nations seem to stand out from the rest. It is true that like everywhere else even here people are fearful of investments and losing jobs. But eventually experts believe these two nations will run the show. The US has always been fearful of China emerging as a major global player so much so that they call the shots in almost everything. Many other nations like Japan, the EU and Britain are wary of that too. In such circumstances the Indo-US nuclear deal is what will help in projecting India as a rival to the Chinese economy. India badly needs the nuclear dose of adrenaline to challenge China’s exponential growth. The future that lies ahead of us will be decided in the next few years. And if we as a nation can hold our nerve and minimise all internal conflicts and problems then we should become a major global player in the coming years. The markets will eventually stabilise and it we capitalise on these developments then we put ourselves on the map and as a power to reckon with.